Acquisition Size

As starter, let us define the variables. CohortMonth is the month when a group of users registered. For example, Dec 2010 is the month that this batch of customers registered. CohortIndex is the number of month since they registered. For example, 2 is the second month after they registered.

With these definitions, obviously, the CohortIndex “1” represents the size of acquisition.

CohortMonth 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Dec 2010 716 246 221 251 245 285 249 236 240 265 254 348 172
Jan 2011 332 69 82 81 110 90 82 86 104 102 124 45 NA
Feb 2011 316 58 57 83 85 74 80 83 86 95 28 NA NA
Mar 2011 388 63 100 76 83 67 98 85 107 38 NA NA NA
Apr 2011 255 49 52 49 47 52 56 59 17 NA NA NA NA
May 2011 249 40 43 36 52 58 61 22 NA NA NA NA NA
Jun 2011 207 33 26 41 49 62 19 NA NA NA NA NA NA
Jul 2011 173 28 31 38 44 17 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Aug 2011 139 30 28 35 14 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Sep 2011 279 56 78 34 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Oct 2011 318 67 30 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Nov 2011 291 32 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Dec 2011 38 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

From this visual, the acquisition size decreased dramatically from Dec 2010. It seems that the ability to acquire new customers is decreasing dramatically. More information is needed about competitors and industry to conduct further analysis.

Retention Rate (%)

Let’s delve into retention rate.

CohortMonth 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Dec 2010 100 34.35754 30.865922 35.05587 34.21788 39.80447 34.776536 32.960894 33.519553 37.011173 35.474860 48.60335 24.02235
Jan 2011 100 20.78313 24.698795 24.39759 33.13253 27.10843 24.698795 25.903614 31.325301 30.722892 37.349398 13.55422 NA
Feb 2011 100 18.35443 18.037975 26.26582 26.89873 23.41772 25.316456 26.265823 27.215190 30.063291 8.860759 NA NA
Mar 2011 100 16.23711 25.773196 19.58763 21.39175 17.26804 25.257732 21.907216 27.577320 9.793814 NA NA NA
Apr 2011 100 19.21569 20.392157 19.21569 18.43137 20.39216 21.960784 23.137255 6.666667 NA NA NA NA
May 2011 100 16.06426 17.269076 14.45783 20.88353 23.29317 24.497992 8.835341 NA NA NA NA NA
Jun 2011 100 15.94203 12.560386 19.80676 23.67150 29.95169 9.178744 NA NA NA NA NA NA
Jul 2011 100 16.18497 17.919075 21.96532 25.43353 9.82659 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Aug 2011 100 21.58273 20.143885 25.17986 10.07194 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Sep 2011 100 20.07168 27.956989 12.18638 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Oct 2011 100 21.06918 9.433962 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Nov 2011 100 10.99656 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Dec 2011 100 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Retention Rate change of every cohort

Red Flag: all cohorts decreased at the end of their cohort Index, which is Dec 2011. One should be warned to check what happen in that month. Ideally, as time goes, the retention rate should flatten out, which indicates customer adherence to this retailer, otherwise they should learn what is the sweet point the retailer provides for their customers.

Note: This graph is interactive: feel free to double click specific cohort on legend to conceal other cohorts. With this reason, md file may not be able to see this effect.

Analyze the quantity of products on average every transaction has

CohortMonth 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Dec 2010 11.111588 12.260241 12.152314 13.228676 13.669839 11.288630 10.620746 12.783798 13.207415 12.985885 14.46231 10.91979 13.73356
Jan 2011 10.881771 10.769231 9.984436 10.118644 14.344288 13.155340 17.369835 16.384477 18.680822 10.226368 10.67580 13.20068 NA
Feb 2011 12.117201 14.295139 10.598131 11.475375 17.472727 12.153203 17.310811 13.166052 13.413121 15.883848 14.33981 NA NA
Mar 2011 9.558752 14.244681 12.968401 10.173302 16.114035 12.664269 11.575985 11.452229 8.996483 9.587678 NA NA NA
Apr 2011 9.867816 11.052632 12.421277 11.521930 11.389091 7.693878 10.406332 9.378378 6.644444 NA NA NA NA
May 2011 14.114890 9.615023 15.275641 11.579618 11.929054 8.507653 9.786787 7.313559 NA NA NA NA NA
Jun 2011 10.600202 16.055556 18.055556 11.230435 12.448598 7.223629 9.723810 NA NA NA NA NA NA
Jul 2011 10.949074 16.400000 5.592275 10.070539 6.241379 7.017094 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Aug 2011 10.504202 7.358663 5.500000 5.699288 6.018293 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Sep 2011 11.520743 6.289888 8.390688 9.870968 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Oct 2011 9.286162 7.452211 5.987654 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Nov 2011 7.840920 7.145455 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Dec 2011 21.336538 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA

Data Source: